Second Quarter 2025 Market Commentary
By Lock Bingham, CRPS®, CPWA® | July 18, 2025
This past quarter felt like an entire market cycle compressed into three months. We went from a near bear market to geopolitical flare-ups, trade tensions, government spending cuts—only to rebound with a powerful rally that pushed markets to new highs. The world’s richest man and the world’s most powerful man started the quarter as friends and ended it as rivals. That says everything about the pace of change we just lived through. It was a wild ride, and yet, long-term investors once again came out ahead.
There’s a sense that the worst may be behind us. Optimism is building around potential trade deals and tax cuts. Political events now play an outsized role in market direction. I didn’t always believe that, but that changed in 2009 when I heard a top fund manager admit they missed what was happening in Washington—and paid the price. That was a turning point for me, and today, policy matters more than ever.
Looking ahead, I’d like to see the pace of change slow down. If tax reform is handled thoughtfully and job growth picks up, markets and businesses will likely respond positively. But fear still lingers—around tariffs, interest rate policy, war, and debt. Uncertainty like this rarely helps investor and consumer sentiment.
Even so, the foundation remains solid. The economy is holding up, financial conditions are favorable, markets are functioning, and corporate earnings continue to grow.
This past quarter may have left some bruises, but not yet scars. The road ahead may be smoother—but for now, keep that seatbelt fastened.
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